Position: Understanding LLMs requires more than statistical generalization

Abstract

The last decade has seen blossoming research in deep learning theory attempting to answer, “Why does deep learning generalize?” A powerful shift in perspective precipitated this progress: the study of overparametrized models in the interpolation regime. In this paper, we argue that another perspective shift is due, since some of the desirable qualities of LLMs are not a consequence of good statistical generalization and require a separate theoretical explanation. Our core argument relies on the observation that AR probabilistic models are inherently non-identifiable: models zero or near-zero KL divergence apart – thus, equivalent test loss – can exhibit markedly different behaviors. We support our position with mathematical examples and empirical observations, illustrating why non-identifiability has practical relevance through three case studies: (1) the non-identifiability of zero-shot rule extrapolation; (2) the approximate non-identifiability of in-context learning; and (3) the non-identifiability of fine-tunability. We review promising research directions focusing on LLM-relevant generalization measures, transferability, and inductive biases.

Patrik Reizinger

PhD candidate

I am a final-year Ph.D. student supervised by Wieland Brendel, Ferenc Huszár, Matthias Bethge, and Bernhard Schölkopf. I am part of the ELLIS and IMPRS-IS programs. I have also spent time at the Vector Institute and at the University of Cambridge.

Wieland Brendel

Principal Investigator (PI)

Wieland Brendel received his Diploma in physics from the University of Regensburg (2010) and his Ph.D. in computational neuroscience from the École normale supérieure in Paris (2014). He joined the University of Tübingen as a postdoctoral researcher in the group of Matthias Bethge, became a Principal Investigator and Team Lead in the Tübingen AI Center (2018) and an Emmy Noether Group Leader for Robust Machine Learning (2020). In May 2022, Wieland joined the Max-Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems as an independent Group Leader and is now a Hector-endowed Fellow at the ELLIS Institute Tübingen (since September 2023). He received the 2023 German Pattern Recognition Award for his substantial contributions on robust, generalisable and interpretable machine vision. Aside of his research, Wieland co-founded a nationwide school competition (bw-ki.de) and a machine learning startup focused on visual quality control.